ISLAMABAD: Positive developments are emerging in the country regarding the economic situation and inflation, where a report issued by Topline Securities states that the inflation rate is expected to decline further in August 2025.
According to the report, the inflation rate is likely to be between 3.75 per cent and 4.25 per cent this month, which may be slightly lower or equal to the 4.07 per cent inflation rate recorded in the previous month, July 2025.
The report states that on an annual basis, inflation was 9.63 per cent in August 2024, compared to which inflation is expected to be less than half in August 2025. A slight increase of 0.3 per cent in inflation every month has also been predicted, which is being considered under seasonal and temporal effects.
Top line Securities, which is a monitoring inflation and referring to the possible policy measures of the State Bank of Pakistan, said that “the State Bank has the scope to reduce the policy rate by 50 to 100 basis points, and it is expected that the policy rate can be brought down to 10 per cent by December 2025.” This prediction has been made in the context of a continuous decline in inflation and economic stability.
According to the report, the average inflation rate is likely to be 6 to 7 per cent by the end of the fiscal year. The State Bank has already issued an inflation estimate of 5 to 7 per cent in its policy guidelines.
According to Topline Securities, the prices of some commodities are expected to increase in August, the items that become more expensive transport fares, diesel, tomatoes, onions, and eggs
According to economic experts, the trend of decreasing inflation has been possible due to improvement in agricultural production, stability in global oil prices, and improvement in the value of the rupee. If this trend continues, the public is expected to receive more relief in the coming months.
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